Local Pending Home Sales Up 12.3% In April

San Diego County pending home sales rose 12.3 percent in April from year-ago levels as completed sales nationally increased nearly as much.

The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, interpreted the results as indicative of demand extending beyond the investor community looking for bargains in the still-depressed housing market.

"A return of normal home buying for occupancy is helping home sales across all price points, and now the recovery appears to be extending to home prices," Yun said.

The San Diego Association of Realtors said there were 5,697 pending sales as of Tuesday, up slightly from 5,654 a month ago and up 12.3 percent from 5,075 a year ago.

That varied slightly from the statewide pending-sales index trend in April. The index declined from 138.9 in March to 128 in April but still was ahead of the year-ago figure of 114.4.

"Inventory constraints could be a contributing factor to lower pending sales," said LeFrancis Arnold, president of the California Association of Realtors.

"The tight inventory we've been experiencing in the distressed market over the past several months is now spreading to equity properties, essentially affecting the supply conditions of both the distressed and nondistressed markets."

The association's breakdown of distressed single-family-home sales shows a downward slide both locally and statewide. Distressed properties includes those sold after foreclosure or as short-sales -- properties sold for less than their outstanding mortgage balance.

• San Diego: Distressed single-family homes comprised 27 percent of the market in April 2011, 26 percent in March and 23 percent last month, the lowest of any county in the state report.
• California: The comparable figures were 48 percent, 45 percent and 42 percent, respectively. The highest distress last month was 67 percent in both Madera and Mendocino counties. Orange County's distress level was 33 percent; Riverside, 56 percent; and Los Angeles, 44 percent.

The national sales figures were reported by region, not metro area. The national median was reported at $177,400 for all housing types, up 10.1 percent from year-ago levels.

According to DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate data firm, San Diego's April median was $329,500, up 2.4 percent from April 2011.

Sales nationally, reported on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, totaled 4.62 million, up 10 percent from April 2011.

For San Diego, the nonadjusted monthly sales count last month was 3,559, up 8.6 percent from April 2011.

courtesy of:  http://www.utsandiego.com

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Safari Park Gets $9 million Gift for New Tiger Exhibit

A rendering of one section of the planned Tiger Trail that will have three different habitats. — Courtesy of Safari Park

An entirely new home for San Diego Zoo Safari Park's Sumatran tigers could open by 2014, thanks to the park's largest pledge ever of $9 million.

Park officials announced Friday that the planned $19.5 million Tiger Trail attraction is assured of the donation as long as an additional $2 million is raised by the end of the year.

A couple who has chosen to remain anonymous pledged to contribute $9 for every $2 in donations to finance the new attraction, designed in part to draw attention to the dwindling Sumatran tiger population. The gift, at most, would be $9 million if the park succeeds in attracting $2 million in donations.

The anonymous donors do not live in the county but for the last six years have supported projects at the zoo, Safari Park and the Institute for Conservation Research, said Mark Stuart, president of the San Diego Zoo Foundation.

Rounding out the hoped-for $11 million in contributions would be $8.5 million in private donations already raised by the park over the last few years.

Conceived three years ago, Tiger Trail would replace the existing canyon enclosure that was not designed for optimal viewing of the animals. The new 5-acre exhibit would provide the tigers with a larger, forested area that would also give visitors a more intimate, close-up look at the endangered animals.

Safari Park currently has six tigers, including two cubs born several months ago. Tiger Trail could accommodate as many as a dozen of the animals, including several cubs, said Randy Rieches, Henshaw Curator of Mammals, an endowed position at the park.

"Although what we have is a nice exhibit for the animals, it limits the ability of our guests to actually get close enough to see how majestic they really are," he explained. "Sometimes, the animals can only be seen from all the way across the canyon."

Planned for the south end of the park’s conifer forest, where animatronic dinosaurs have been exhibited in the past, Tiger Trail will feature three distinct exhibit areas. Envisioned are rocks for climbing, ponds for swimming and deadwood trees for scratching posts.

One tiger habitat is meant to mimic an abandoned farm with overgrown, terraced rice paddies. Another would allow visitors to see the tigers in a stream-side habitat from behind a waterfall. It will ultimately be up to the tigers, though, if they want to be seen or hidden from view.

The planned exhibit, Rieches said, will be especially important in preserving and expanding the population of Sumatran tigers, which number no more than 400 in the wild.

Critically endangered, they've become increasingly sought after by poachers for what some believe is their medicinal value. An entire tiger carcass, Rieches said, can command as much as $50,000.

In all, there are about 235 Sumatran tigers housed in zoos worldwide, according to the San Diego Zoo. Plans for the new attraction call for moving tigers in and out of the enclosure as part of a cooperative effort with a consortium of zoos that also breed critically endangered species, Rieches said.

The $19.5 million cost includes some funds set aside for a maintenance endowment, as well as the cost of hiring a post-doctoral fellow stationed in Indonesia for five years who conduct further research into the challenges of preserving Sumatran tigers.

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Father's Day Free at the Fleet Science Center - Gross Your Kids Out!

Your Guide to the Fleet JUNE 2012

Dads Free to Gross Your Kids Out - Father's Day Free at the Fleet! Let Dad discover for himself why our bodies produce mushy, oozy, crusty, scaly and stinky stuff at "GROSSOLOGY: The (Impolite) Science of the Human Body." Dads receive Free Gallery Admission with the purchase of one full-price gallery admission ticket (adult, junior or senior) on the same day. No other discounts accepted, purchase at ticket counter. Moms welcome, but not required to be grossed out. More>>Sunday, June 17 "Grossology" is made possible, in part, by a generous grant from Takeda California. Explor-O-Rama - Get Your Hands On Science! Our newest Main Gallery exhibition will feature some of the all-time favorite and never-seen-before exhibits from San Francisco's Exploratorium, with opportunities to explore mechanics, motion, math, hearing, electricity and many other areas of science. Look for new challenges with  the Bicycle Wheel Gyro, Strobe Flower and  Magnetic Wave Machine; and enjoy the return of popular favorites the Whisper Dishes, Rope Squirter, and Pedal Generator! More>>Exhibit Opens Saturday, June 16 "Check It Out" - The Fleet Now Available at Every SD City Library! The Fleet is proud to launch "Check It Out ~ The Reuben H. Fleet Science Center" in partnership with San Diego Public Library, sponsored by ScholarShare College Savings Plan. This innovative program provides area families unlimited access to the Fleet, with circulating "Exhibit Experience Membership Cards" available for checkout at each of 36 city libraries. When library patrons check out a Fleet membership card, they receive full membership benefits for two full weeks; including free gallery admission for two adults and up to six children, discounts on IMAX® films and digital shows, and discounts at Galileo's Café and the North Star Science Store. Available now at a library near you! ScholarShare College Savings Plan is a proud sponsor of "Check It Out"        Last-In-A Lifetime Chance to View Transit of Venus on June 5! We sold out of $2 eclipse viewers and glasses at North Star Science Store for the May solar eclipse, so get yours early this time! Last chance 'til 2117 to view a Transit of Venus as it passes in front of the sun - among the rarest of planetary alignments, last seen in 2004. The transit begins at 3:06PM, visible inside the sun's disk at 3:23PM. Venus will travel across the face of the sun until sunset at 7:54PM. This is literally a last-in-a-lifetime event. Learn about it in a NEW digital short before every BLACK HOLES digital planetarium show screening, then join us at the Fleet to make a pinhole camera and watch safely - and keep those solar shades handy! More>>Tuesday, June 5 3:06 p.m. - 7:54 p.m., Science Center closes at 5:00 p.m. Become a Green Engineer at our 5th Annual Family Day! Learn about renewable energy and water conservation at our "So WATT" and "San Diego Water" exhibitions. Design, build and take home your very own solar-powered car! Many more hands-on activities for the entire family. Enter our drawing for a free "green" themed summer camp (Grades 1-6). Activities free with gallery admissions. More>> Saturday, June 30 11 a.m. - 3:00 p.m.  Exploring Ethics: "Overcoming Barriers to Medical Research" "Can the Community Help Overcome Barriers to Medical Research?"  UCSD's Dr. Howard Taras explores the role of Community Agencies in finding enough people for medical research studies, especially those with a specific disease or from a particular community. Free, registration required: (858) 822-2647 / ethicscenter@ucsd.edu. For the months of July, August and September, the Ethics lecture series will be held at the Sanford Consortium Building. Please refer to the Center for Ethics website for more information. More>> Wednesday, June 6 5:30 p.m. - 7:00 p.m.  5th Annual International Autonomous Robot Competition (iARoC) The Fleet Community Forum hosts 15+ teams of middle and high school students competing to design and program an autonomous robot that can find its way through a set of obstacles, locate Infra-Red and visible beacons, and activate a switch at the home station.  Saturday will be trial runs, technical presentations and robot drag races; main competition on Sunday. Stop by to cheer on your favorite robot! Admission to the Wintriss Technical School iARoc robotics event is free with gallery admission. Saturday, June 23 & Sunday, June 24 Members Receive Free Exhibit Gallery Admission The openings of the "Grossology" and "Explor-O-Rama" exhibitions are great reasons to use your membership. Fleet members receive free exhibit gallery admission - always. If the building is open, you get in free. Present your membership card at the entrance to the science center and avoid waiting in line.* Free exhibit gallery admission is one more reason why Fleet Membership is a great value all year long. (Not yet a member?  Join right now online.) * Reminder: If you're seeing a film or digital show, always exchange your Member Theater Vouchers at the Ticket Counter before you line up at the Theater.  Quick Links Monthly Schedule [pdf] Buy Tickets Online  Membership Info Purchase a Gift Card Deals & Discounts Volunteer Opportunities June Events 1 Fridays at the Fleet 2 ROCK THE DOME 3 Family Science Saturdays 4 Senior Monday 5 Free Tuesday 5 Transit of Venus 6 Young Scientists 6 The Sky Tonight: "Summer Constellations" 6 Exploring Ethics 8 Friday at the Fleet 9 Saturday Science Club for Girls 9 Family Science Saturdays 9 ROCK THE DOME 15 Fridays at the Fleet 16 Explor-O-Rama Opens 16 Family Science Saturday 16 ROCK THE DOME 17 Dads FREE on Father's Day 17 IMAX en Español 22 Fridays at the Fleet 23 Family Science Saturday 23 ROCK THE DOME 23 iAROC Robotics Competition 24  iAROC Robotics Competition 25 Summer Camps 29 Fridays at the Fleet 30 5th Annual Family Day 30 ROCK THE DOME Now Playing   TO THE ARCTIC    BORN TO BE WILD  BLACK HOLES: The Other Side of Infinity

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Leading Economic Indicators Up In March - USD, Alan Gin

Leading Economic Indicators Up in March

Note: After supplying building permit data on a regular basis for the USD Index for nearly 20 years, changes at the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) have led to delays in the reporting of building permit data and the release of the monthly report.  Data has now been released for February and March and the California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF) is in the process of taking over the CIRB functions.  The CHF plans to begin releasing data this summer but has not announced an exact date so the date of the next Leading Economic Indicators Index is uncertain.  My thanks to Ben Bartolotto of the Construction Industry Research Board for all his help over the years.

May 31, 2012 -- The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.9 percent in both February and March.  For March, five of the six components were up, with particularly large gains in initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer confidence.  There were smaller increases in building permits, help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy.  The only component not advancing was local stock prices, and they were unchanged.      

	Index of Leading Economic Indicators  The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (March)  Source: USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate	+ 0.9 %
	Building Permits  Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (March) Source: Construction Industry Research Board	+ 0.59%
	Unemployment Insurance  Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (March)  Source: Employment Development Department	+ 1.98%
	Stock Prices  San Diego Stock Exchange Index (March)  Source: San Diego Daily Transcript	+ 0.00%
	Consumer Confidence  An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County, estimated  (March) Source: The Conference Board	+ 2.19%
	Help Wanted Advertising  An index of online help wanted advertising in San Diego (March)  Source: Monster Worldwide	+ 0.20%
	National Economy  Index of Leading Economic Indicators (March) Source: The Conference Board	+ 0.61%

With the two positive months, the USD Index had advanced for five consecutive months through March.  Also positive was a pickup in the strength and breadth of the advance, with many components up and up significantly.  This suggests continued growth in the local economy through the end of 2012, with the pace picking up towards the end of the year.

Highlights:  Residential units authorized by building permits started the year negatively, with total units authorized for the first quarter down almost 23 percent compared to the first quarter of 2011.  Single-family units authorized were particularly hard hit:  they fell by 28 percent in the first quarter, compared to a loss of 20 percent for multi-family units authorized. . . Both labor market variables continue to be positive.  Initial claims for unemployment insurance have fallen for seven months in a row, which is a positive for the Index.  The programs extending the duration of unemployment insurance have never been included in the calculation of this component, so legislation cutting back on those benefits have no impact here.  On the hiring front, help wanted advertising has increased for 16 consecutive months.  The net result was that the local unemployment rate fell below 9 percent again to 8.7 percent in April, which is the lowest unemployment rate since February 2009.  This compares to an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent in March and 9.7 percent in April 2011. . .Consumer confidence continues to improve, even though gas prices surged in the two months covered by this report.  In the past, there has been a significant correlation between increases in gas prices and a fall in consumer confidence. . . Even though local stock prices were flat in March, the first quarter was a good one for local stocks, which were up 14.9 percent.  This compares to gains of 8.1 percent in the Down Jones Industrial Average, 12.0 percent in the S&P 500 Index, and 18.7 percent in the NASDAQ Composite Index. . . Despite sluggish growth for the national economy, the outlook remains positive, with the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators having advanced for 11 months in a row.  The “advance” estimate for Gross Domestic Product growth for the first quarter was 2.2 percent, down from 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter  but above the 1.7 percent growth rate for 2011 as a whole. 

March’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 119.8, up from 118.7 in February.  For revisions to the previously reported values for the Index, for the monthly change, and for changes for the individual components, please visit the Website address given below.  The values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:

Index	% Change
2011	MAR	115.3	+1.2%
	APR	116.4	+1.0%
	MAY	117.2	+0.7%
	JUN	116.9	-0.2%
	JUL	117.1	+0.2%
	AUG	116.0	-1.0%
	SEP	116.1	+0.1%
	OCT	115.9	-0.2%
	NOV	116.2	+0.2%
	DEC	116.9	+0.6%
2012	JAN	117.7	+0.7%
	FEB	118.7	+0.9%
	MAR	119.8	+0.9%
Home - All Months

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For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:

Professor Alan Gin  School of Business Administration  University of San Diego  5998 Alcalá Park  San Diego, CA 92110

TEL: (858) 603-3873  FAX: (858) 484-5304  E-mail: agin@san.rr.com Twitter: @alanginusdsba

courtesy of:  http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei/lei12mar.htm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Funny, Useless Public Signs

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courtesy of:  http://xaxor.com

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Understanding Mortgage Rates - NASDAQ.com

Everyone wants to get the lowest mortgage rate they can when buying a home or refinancing their current home loan. But chasing after the lowest rate can be a sucker's game.

That's because the lowest interest rate doesn't necessarily mean the least expensive loan. And when it comes right down to it, what you're really looking to do is save money, right?

The problem is that the interest rate is only part of what determines how much you'll pay for your mortgage. It may be the biggest and most obvious part, but there are other things you need to consider as well. And those can have a significant impact on the overall cost of your mortgage.

Low rates can mean high fees

Some lenders will advertise a low interest rate, but charge higher up-front fees and closing costs to make up for it. These can add up to thousands of dollars and in some cases may even be double what a different lender would charge.

Borrowers may realize that one lender charges higher closing fees than others do, but shrug it off and figure they'll get it back on the lower interest rate. After all, those small savings add up and the power of reverse compounding means you'll pay down your principle faster and save money over the long run, right?

Well, yes and no. A smaller interest rate does mean that you'll pay down your principle more quickly, but those additional fees mean you'll have more principle to pay off to begin with (assuming you roll your closing costs into the loan). Often, you'll find that a loan with a low interest rate but high up-front fees will cost you more over the long run that a mortgage with a rate that runs a quarter of a percent higher but has lower fees. Lenders know their math - they're going to offer a deal that leaves them holding the short end of the stick.

Should you buy points?

Often, lenders will advertise a low mortgage interest rate that is based on charging points. Discount points are another type of up-front fee that are separate from what the lender charges for originating the mortgage. They're actually a type of pre-paid interest that enables you to lower your interest rate by paying a certain amount up front.

Each discount point costs 1 percent of the amount borrowed and typically lowers your interest rate by one-eighth of a percentage point. So if you're borrowing $200,000, one point would cost $2,000 up front and might give you an interest rate of 3.87 percent instead of 4.0 percent on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Two points would cost $4,000 and might enable you to get the rate down to 3.75 percent.

It typically takes about 8-10 years for the savings on interest to equal the upfront cost of discount points on a 30-year mortgage. So the question of whether you should pay for discount points or not largely depends on how long you're going to stay in the home.

Using APR as a guide

The best way to figure out how much a mortgage is actually going to cost you is to use a mortgage calculator and figure out how the costs of two different loans will play out over time. That's not always easy to do, so a simplified way of comparing two loans is to simply look at the annual percentage rate, or APR for the loan.

The APR is a way of expressing the total cost of a mortgage in terms of an interest rate. Basically, it's the rate you would pay if you took all the additional costs of the loan and rolled them into the interest rate. The APR is a handy rule-of-thumb for comparing different loan offers, but it's not an infallible guide, so it's best to calculate the actual costs of competing loan offers when possible.

courtesy of: http://community.nasdaq.com

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Home Prices Show Strongest Gain in 6 Years: NAR

Existing-home sales rose to 4.62 million (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) in April from a downwardly revised March rate of 4.47 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Tuesday. Economists had forecast the April sales pace would be 4.66 million.

The median price of an existing home climbed 10.1 percent to $177,400 from $161,100 in April 2011, the strongest year-to-year gain since January 2006. The median price in April reached its highest level since July 2010 when it was $182,100.

The inventory of homes for sale in April rose to 2.54 million, the highest level since last November, bringing the months’ supply of homes on the market to 6.6.

The 10.0 percent yearly gain in the sales rate was the strongest since October when sales were up 14.0 percent year-over-year.

Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts – accounted for 28 percent of April sales (17 percent were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales), down from 29 percent in March and 37 percent in April 2011, the NAR said. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 21 percent below market value in April (compared with an average discount of 19 percent in March), while short sales were discounted 14 percent in April compared with 16 percent in March.

The months’ supply of existing homes for sale remains well below the July 2010 cyclical peak of 12.4 which had been the highest level since 1982. Inventories as tracked by the NAR are 20.3 percent below their year ago level. However, anecdotal evidence suggests there is still a large “shadow” inventory of homes available for sale, especially bank-owned properties.

Regionally, existing-home sales rose in April in every region of the country led by a 5.1 percent month-to-month increase in the Northeast where sales were up19.2 percent over April 2011. Sales rose 4.4 percent over March in the West (a 7.3 percent year-year gain), 3.5 percent in the South (6.5 percent year-year) and 1.0 percent in the Midwest (14.4 percent year over year).

The median price of an existing home rose month-to-month and year-to-year in all four regions. At $256,600, the median price of an existing home reached its highest level since August 2010. The median price of an existing home in the South rose to $153,400, the highest level since July 2010 and the median price of an existing home in the West rose to $221,700, also the highest since July 2010.

The year-to-year price gain in the West, 15.9 percent, was the strongest since November 2005. The year-to-year price increase in the Northeast was the first since last June.

courtesy of:  http://www.dsnews.com/

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