Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Humphreys Concerts By The Bay Schedule

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Mary "Peg" Heying
REALTOR® - CA DRE License # 01726709
Prudential CA Realty
890 W Washington St.
San Diego, CA 92103
Cell:  (619) 301-8589
Website:  http://www.realtorpeg.com/

Humphreys_schedule_2012d9c

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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Home Prices to Increase Modestly by Year-End: Clear Capital

The valuation firm Clear Capital released the results of its home price forecasting models Thursday. The company expects residential property values at the national level to show slight increases over the next three months, ending the year with a growth rate of 1.2 percent.

Diagrams illustrating the trajectory of home prices from 2006 to now and Clear Capital’s projections heading into 2013 depict the valley shape with current prices at the bottom and a subtle upward trend from March through December of 2012.

The strongest of the country’s four regions throughout much of 2011, the Northeast, is expected to see a modest gain of 0.3 percent over the next three months but pick up momentum and grow prices by 1.3 percent to wrap up the year.

The South is expected to perform the strongest in the short term with prices projected to increase 0.5 percent over the next three months, and end the year up 1.6 percent.

Clear Capital’s forecast indicates the Western region could be turning a corner. The three-month numbers show the region gaining 0.2 percent, and pushing that to a positive 1.0 percent by year-end.

The Midwest remains the weakest region of the country in terms of home prices. There, Clear Capital is expecting a drop of 0.6 percent over the next three months, but then movement into positive territory with a 0.7 percent gain by December.

The 50 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) tracked by Clear Capital are forecast to show mixed gains and losses, with 30 markets expected to see gains and 20 markets projected to post losses through the end of 2012.

Over half of the metros in the company’s study should see prices move less than 2 percent in either direction. No

double-digit declines are expected however, Phoenix, Arizona, and Tampa, Florida, are expected to see double-digit gains.

Clear Capital sees positive price trends on the horizon for most of the country, despite the fact that currently home prices are continuing to slip. Data through March 2012 shows national home prices fell 0.2 percent in Clear Capital’s rolling quarter-over-quarter analysis.

The West, South, and Northeast posted quarterly gains of less than 1 percent, and the Midwest lost a significant 2.4 percent.

The year-over-year numbers showed even weaker performance for the nation and all its regions, indicating short-term appreciation has yet to be enough to turn the long-term tide.

According to Clear Capital’s assessment, the nation lost 1.4 percent in home values from March 2011 through March 2012, which is slightly better than February’s year-over-year decline of 1.9 percent.

REO saturation, which traditionally pushes down prices, continued to climb last month, Clear Capital reported. It was the second month in a row that distressed property sales as a percentage of total sales increased for the nation and all regions.

Clear Capital says its findings confirm speculation that finalization of the attorneys general settlement has led servicers to become more aggressive in moving their REO backlog onto the housing market.

In March, the national REO rate went up 1.2 points from the previous month’s reading to hit 27 percent, pointing to an acceleration of REO sales. The Midwest contributed the most to the increase, jumping 3.8 points to 34.3 percent, with the other regions all seeing softer increases.

Of particular interest this month, according to Clear Capital, is how the changes in REO saturation are affecting prices. In the past, there has been a consistent inverse relationship between changes in REO saturation and prices, but not in March’s study. Although their REO rates increased, the West, Northeast, and South regions also saw home prices increase.

These geographies are exhibiting a pricing resilience to REO saturation that has not been seen in previous analyses, Clear Capital says. The company says it could be explained by improvement in jobs numbers recently, rapidly increasing investor activity in certain regions, and a general increase in consumer confidence.

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Housing Crisis to End in 2012

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

 

 

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generate actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

via  DSNews.com 


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Home Prices Have Been Rising for Three Months: Report

Standard & Poor’s reported Tuesday that it’s closely watched Case-Shiller index declined in January for the fifth straight month, with both the 10-city and 20-city composite readings slipping 0.8 percent from December.

But according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC), that’s stale news and doesn’t reflect what’s actually happening in the market right now. In fact, the independent research company says home prices are rising.

JBREC conducted its own analysis of home prices in 97 markets and found that over the January-to-March period prices are up in 90 of them. The average price increase over the last three months is 1.1 percent, or a 4.5 percent annual rate, according to data issued by JBREC just before S&P’s Case-Shiller release.

The company also found that home prices have been trending up nationally since January, and even more markets have turned positive recently, with 93 of the 97 markets it analyzed showing appreciation over the last month.

So why are other industry indices still painting a picture of the doom and gloom of freefalling home prices? Wayne Yamano, VP and director of research for JBREC, says it’s because most price indices are on a three-month lag.

Yamano explains that after hundreds of hours of research vetting 23 data sources and running calculation after calculation, JBREC developed the Burns Home Value Index (BHVI), which calculates home values based on prices that are set at the time purchase contracts are negotiated and signed.

Nearly all other indices are based on when the purchase transaction closes, he says, which is typically two months after the purchase contracts were negotiated. Then, it takes one to two months for the closing price data to be compiled and reported, according to Yamano.

He contends that the BHVI is a better assessment of current changes in home prices and precedes median price data from the National Association of Realtors by three months and the S&P/Case-Shiller index by four to six months.

“It is current because it uses what is happening in MLS databases all over the country, as well as some leading indicators we have determined are reliable,” Yamano explained. “We call it a Home Value index because it is partially based on an ‘electronic appraisal’ of every home in the market, rather than just the small sample of homes that are actually transacting.”

JBREC has calculated BHVI index values for the United States and 97 major metro areas, with history going back to January 2000.

“The slow housing market recovery is underway, and it can accelerate or turn down quickly,” said Yamano. “The future is uncertain, and it is even more uncertain when you are using data that is three months old.”

 

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Housing Crisis to End in 2012 as Banks Loosen Credit Standards

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generate actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

 

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Air Danshin creates airlift system to levitate houses during earthquakes

Air Danshin's seismic isolation system airlifts homes to protect them during earthquakes

Air Danshin's seismic isolation system airlifts homes to protect them during earthquake.

 

When you live in a country as seismically active as Japan, thinking about earthquakes (and tsumanis) probably occupies a good deal of your time. Inventor Shoichi Sakamoto took it a step further. He decided to do something about it and invented a technology, remarkably simple in concept, to protect homes from the devastating shaking - an airlift system capable of automatically raising and isolating the whole house until the temblor stops.

Already deployed in nearly 90 sites across Japan, the system functions in a straightforward manner: the house is separated from its foundation by an expandable, sliding air chamber. The instant a quake is detected (within .5 - 1 second), air from a storage tank fills the chamber and lifts the entire structure up to 1.18 inch (3 cm) and keeps it there until a sensor detects the shaking has stopped. Emergency batteries are provided to ensure the system stays functional in the likely event of power-loss.

Air Danshin claims that its system (see one of Sakamoto's patent applications here) is about a third the cost of other seismic isolation systems. Apparently it's also designed larger versions suitable for facilities such as factories and laboratories. Unfortunately, there was no mention of plans to protect nuclear power plants, but there's always hope.

Check out the videos below to see demonstrations of Air Danshin's system in action.

Source: Air Danshin via Spoon and Tamago

 

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New Supermarket Scanner Recognizes Objects by Appearance, Not Barcodes

Toshiba Tec's new supermarket scanner is able to identify grocery items based on nothing b...

Toshiba Tec's new supermarket scanner is able to identify grocery items based on nothing but their appearance (Photo: DigInfo)

At some point, we've probably all had a supermarket cashier ask us to identify the mysterious fresh produce that we're attempting to buy. Once we've told them what it is, they have then had to manually type in its code - they have to enter it themselves, of course, given that fruits and vegetables don't have barcodes. Thanks to Toshiba Tec, however, those days may be coming to an end. The company's new Object Recognition Scanner is able to instantly identify grocery items of all types based on their appearance alone.

Instead of a barcode-reading laser, the Object Recognition Scanner has a camera. That camera filters out background "noise" in its picture, so that it only sees objects held close to its lens against a neutral black background. Using pattern recognition software, the scanner has been taught to recognize different varieties of fruits and vegetables, along with packaged products and coupons. It can do so even if they're held up to the camera for a relatively short time, and aren't held absolutely still - which is pretty much the whole point of the system.

Given that it wouldn't be practical to expect supermarket staff to teach the system to recognize every item in their store, it will instead be delivered with a pre-installed database of produce and other products. Because the appearance of fresh produce changes with the season, it will take a full year to compile that database.

Toshiba is now refining the technology, so that it can more quickly and easily "read" objects from a wide range of distances.

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Credit Trends Among U.S. Consumers Point to End of Housing Downturn

Consumer credit data suggests spending will increase and the housing market will begin to emerge from its slump this year, according to Equifax and Moody’s Analytics.

Statistical analysis applied by CreditForecast.com, a joint product of Equifax and Moody’s, to new performance data for consumer credit supports the forecast issued by the credit bureau and ratings agency.

Both companies note that as key market data align with pre-recession totals, consumers should anticipate steady economic growth for major credit sectors.

Looking across the full spectrum of consumer credit, Equifax and Moody’s found that delinquency rates for auto, bankcard, and consumer finance are back to pre-

recession levels. These sectors are expected to contribute to the U.S. economy’s nascent recovery.

The home mortgage lending sector continues to see the highest percentage of delinquencies, the companies’ report notes, even with outstanding mortgage balances (including first liens and home equity lines and loans) having declined by $1 trillion since 2008 and continuing to drop.

Even so, mortgage rates are at all-time lows, with refinance activity at high levels and offsetting diminished demand for new loan originations, according to Equifax and Moody’s.

The companies also note that tighter lending guidelines are reflected in loans made to the prime risk segment (those borrowers with an Equifax score of 700 or above). Consumers that fit the bill of a prime risk now account for more than 80 percent of all new mortgage originations.

“After spending recent years in the financial doldrums, U.S. consumers are poised to make a comeback in 2012,” according to Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist for Equifax.

She says the most promising indicators are showing up in consumer spending and the auto financing sector, but even the housing market is exhibiting incremental progress that points to increased traction in the coming months.

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Home Affordability Index Reaches Record-High Level

Home affordability has reached the highest peak since 1970, which is when the data was first recorded, according to National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) housing affordability index.

The index rose to 206.1 in January, and an index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-

priced single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and 25 percent of gross income for mortgage principal and interest payments.

“This is the first time the housing affordability index has broken the two hundred mark, meaning the typical family has roughly double the income needed to purchase a median-priced home,” said Moe Veissi, NAR president.

While projections about future mortgage rates and home prices have been mixed, NAR expects little change and anticipates affordability levels will stay high through 2012.

“Housing inventory levels have declined to a point where conditions are becoming much more balanced in much of the country,” Veissi said. “If access to credit improves, we could see a much more meaningful increase in home sales and broader stabilization in home prices with modest gains in areas with stronger job growth.”

The index is based on the relationship between median home price, median family income, and the average mortgage interest rate.

 

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