Saturday, April 30, 2011

Bank of America Brings in Industry 'Heavy-Hitters,' Rise in Housing Inventory?

Bank of America has assembled what you might call a “Dream Team” of default servicing executivese to head up critical areas within its Legacy Asset Servicing division. Collectively, this new team has more than 70 years experience working with distressed borrowers.

John Berens joins the bank as retention executive. In this role, he will be responsible for loan modifications and collections. Berens’ anticipated start date is May 9.

A 25-year mortgage veteran, Berens most recently served as the default servicing executive for JPMorgan Chase. His prior roles include head of loan servicing for Washington Mutual, head of servicing for Advanta National Bank, and previous executive servicing roles at JPMorgan.

Patrick Carey joins Bank of America, effective May 16, as the Held for Investment (HFI) and specialty segments executive. Carey will oversee portfolio management and operational execution as it relates to the servicing of BofA’s HFI portfolio, the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act (SCRA), and default servicing complaint resolution. He will also serve as operational liaison in default servicing to the GSEs, HUD, as well as external constituents.

Carey brings with him over 20 years of industry expertise. Previously he was CEO of Titanium Holdings, the parent company of Titanium Solutions, a provider of loss mitigation outreach services. Carey has also served as EVP of default and retention operations for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Inc. where he was responsible for all the bank’s default functions.

Bob Hora joins Bank of America as executive in charge of short sales, REO, and deeds in lieu. He will be responsible for streamlining the bank’s efforts to leverage short sales and other property liquidation tools to prevent foreclosures. He will also oversee the management and marketing of properties in the bank’s real estate-owned portfolio. Hora starts with the company on May 23.

Hora is a 25-year mortgage veteran who is currently the national servicing operations executive for Fannie Mae. His previous roles include head of enterprise loss mitigation at GMAC-ResCap, head of default for Homecomings Financial, and various leadership roles within Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.

Tony Meola, Bank of America’s servicing executive, says these new high-level additions to his team represent an extension of the company’s commitment to its distressed borrowers.

“Our true north is to deliver fast, fair, and final decisions to our borrowers in loss mitigation resolution,” Meola said. “When you think about the plight of the home borrowers today, you want an anxiety-free process…you want to be proactive, responsive to them, and frankly, you want to be approachable and have accessibility.”

“So for us,” Meola explained, “we’ve sort of bundled that up to ensure that we make resolutions to their needs in a way that is fair, number one. That it’s fast because borrowers want resolution quickly in this time of need. And that it’s final so there’s some finality in their situation. That’s the mantra of the organization and that’s how I will manage and judge our success.”

Meola himself joined Bank of America just 60 days ago from Morgan Stanley’s Saxon Mortgage where he held the position of chief operating officer. He says the drive to bring in top leadership to compliment the “significant talent” already on board began with Terry Laughlin.

Laughlin was named to head the new Legacy Asset Servicing division that was formed in early February for the purpose of handling the default aspect of the bank’s portfolio.

Meola explained that this division’s total focus is on the distressed borrower and delivering to each individual borrower the appropriate level of loss mitigation, and ultimately the correct resolution for that borrower’s situation.

This customer segmentation “is designed with one thing in mind, and one thing only, and that’s to provide the most focused and best service for those customers,” Meola said.

It’s this type of commitment to “execute at the highest level of precision and accuracy” that Meola says makes the three new additions to his team – Berens, Carey, and Hora – an ideal fit for the organization and will position Bank of America as the “standard of excellence” in default servicing.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Pending Home Sales Rise Again

March saw another increase in pending home sales, with contract activity rising unevenly in six of the past nine months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract  signings, rose 5.1 percent to 94.1 in March from a downwardly revised 89.5 in February. The index is 11.4 percent below 106.2 in March 2010; however, activity was at elevated levels in March and April of 2010 to meet the contract deadline for the home buyer tax credit.

The data reflects contracts but not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says home sales activity has shown an uneven but notable improvement. “Since reaching a cyclical bottom last June, pending home sales have posted an overall gain of 24 percent and demonstrate the market is recovering on its own,” he notes. “The index means modest near-term gains in existing-home sales are likely, which would be even stronger if tight mortgage lending criteria returned to normal, safe standards.”

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 3.2 percent to 63.4 in March and is 18.4 percent below March 2010. In the Midwest the index rose 3.0 percent in March to 83.5 but is 16.6 percent below where it was a year ago. Pending home sales in the South jumped 10.3 percent to an index of 110.2, but are 10.5 percent below March 2010. In the West, the index increased 3.1 percent to 103.7 but is 4.1 percent below a year ago.

“Based on the current uptrend with very favorable affordability conditions, rising apartment rents and ongoing job creation, existing-home sales should rise around 5 to 10 percent this year with sales growth of lower priced homes likely to outperform high-end homes. That means the price trend will reflect more homes sold in the lower price ranges,” Yun says.

“The good news is that recent home buyers are staying well within budget, leading to exceptionally low loan default rates among home buyers over the past two years,” Yun adds.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Precursor to Existing Home Sales Heads Higher

Pending sales of existing homes rose again in March, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).


The trade group’s monthly reading of contract signings – which is a forward-looking indicator of where sales of previously owned homes will likely be within one to two months – rose 5.1 percent in March.

With distressed properties now accounting for nearly half of the market’s sales activity, the pending sales reading points to an increase in REO and short sales in the coming months.

NAR described its latest assessment as another sign that the market’s recovery is proving to be “uneven, but a notable improvement.”

The trade group’s measurement of contract activity has risen in six of the past nine months. Reports of actual sales of previously owned homes have exhibited the same ups and downs.

“Since reaching a cyclical bottom last June, pending home sales have posted an overall gain of 24 percent and demonstrate the market is recovering on its own,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

“The index means modest near-term gains in existing-home sales are likely, which would be even stronger if tight mortgage lending criteria returned to normal, safe standards,” Yun added.

Contracts signings rose last month in every region of the country except the Northeast, where the pending sales index dropped 3.2 percent from the previous month, NAR said.

In the Midwest the index rose 3.0 percent in March. In the West pending home sales increased 3.1 percent, and in the South they jumped 10.3 percent.

“Based on the current uptrend with very favorable affordability conditions, rising apartment rents, and ongoing job creation, existing-home sales should rise around 5 to 10 percent this year with sales growth of lower priced homes likely to outperform high-end homes,” Yun said.

He explained that with more homes sold in the lower price range, it will ultimately translate to further declines in price trends.

“The good news,” Yun added, “is that recent homebuyers are staying well within budget, leading to exceptionally low loan default rates among homebuyers over the past two years.”

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

San Diego Leading "Turnaround" Site for Housing

 According to Realtor.com, San Diego has been on the comeback trail for more than a year.

- U-T photo

According to Realtor.com, San Diego has been on the comeback trail for more than a year.

San Diego is one of the top metro areas in the country where a housing recovery is either imminent or underway, according to a report by Realtor.com, which tracks real estate markets across the nation.

Based on online real estate searches, price stability and the number of days that homes are listed for sale, Realtor.com, which released the report on Wednesday, developed a list of the 10 likeliest sites for an early rebound, ranging from Dallas, which largely avoided the real estate crash, to Fort Myers, Fla., which - like San Diego - was one of the earliest epicenters of the decline.

According to Realtor.com, San Diego has been on the comeback trail for more than a year. Among other things, the report noted that:

--The median age of inventory for San Diego listings on the market in March was 79 days, about half the national median of 160 days, and almost 16 percent lower than in February.

--San Diego was the 15th most searched market in the nation in February and March.

--The median list price rose 1.4 percent between February and March, although it is still down 1.4 percent from March 2010.

Some other measures suggest that San Diego's real estate market is still shaky. DataQuick Information Systems in La Jolla, for instance, reports that sales volume in March was 5 percent lower than a year ago.

On the other hand, foreclosures have dropped 6 percent in San Diego County over the past year and defaults are down 23 percent, putting less downward pressure on prices.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Consumer Confidence Rises in April

April 29, 2011—(MCT)—Consumer confidence recovered somewhat in April, though the impact of a spike in gasoline prices is still evident, according to data released Tuesday by the Conference Board.

The confidence index hit 65.4 in April, compared with an upwardly revised 63.8 in March. That’s still below the 72.0 reading of February, as gasoline prices nationally have approached $4 per gallon.

The increase came as consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations declined to 6.3 percent in April from 6.7 percent in March. In addition, consumer views about the present situation improved.

“Consumers’ short-term outlook improved slightly, suggesting that the uncertainty expressed last month is easing,” says Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s consumer research center. “Although confidence remains weak, consumers’ assessment of current conditions gained ground for the seventh straight month, a sign that the economic recovery continues.”

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected an April reading of 65.

“The Fed will be pleased to see that the further rise in gasoline prices towards $3.90 a gallon does not appear to have put another dent in US consumer confidence or added to households’ inflation expectations,” writes Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist with Capital Economics, in a research note.

The Conference Board’s index helps analysts compare fluctuations in confidence, with a reading of 100 for the base year of 1985. Generally when the economy is growing at a good clip, confidence readings are at 90 and above.

A gauge of consumers’ views of the present situation rose to 39.6 in April from 37.5 in March. About 49 percent of respondents said business conditions are “normal,” while 36 percent said they are “bad” and 15 percent said they are “good.” Meanwhile, the vast majority said jobs are either “not so plentiful” or “hard to get.”

The index for consumers’ expectations increased to 82.6 from 81.3. Most respondents said they expect both business conditions and employment to be the same in six months. Also, while most said they expect the same income in six months, those saying they expect income to increase rose to 16.7 percent from 15.2 percent.

Those with plans to buy an automobile within six months rose to 12.4 percent in April from 11.3 percent in March, while those expecting to buy a home rose to 5.5 percent from 4.1 percent, and those planning to buy major appliances increased to 49.1 percent from 43.8 percent.

For more information visit http://www.marketwatch.com.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Freddie Mac's Delinquencies Decline for Fourth Straight Month

The percentage of home loans going unpaid is steadily declining for the nation’s second largest mortgage company.

Freddie Mac reported Tuesday that its single-family seriously delinquent rate decreased to 3.63 percent in March. That’s down 15 basis points from 3.78 percent in February.

It’s the fourth consecutive month that the GSE has seen serious delinquencies – loans that are 90 or more days past due – head south.

With only a few intermittent blips upward in the rate over the last year, Freddie has recorded a drop in its seriously delinquent rate in nine of the past 12 months.

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-California), chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, sent a

letter last month to Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency which oversees the McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac and its sibling GSE Fannie Mae in Washington, D.C.

Issa requested DeMarco send him documentation on home loans purchased by the two mortgage giants and the underwriting standards in place over the last two years in order to assess if Freddie and Fannie were in the business of scooping up high-risk, low-quality mortgages.

Officials at Freddie Mac have maintained that the new single-family business the company acquired in 2009 and 2010 “continues to demonstrate strong credit quality based on borrower credit scores and loan-to-value ratios.”

In a report issued last week protesting the lack of credit available to homebuyers these days, the National Association of Realtors cited data showing that the average credit score for both Freddie Mac- and Fannie Mae-backed mortgages has risen to 760, up from 720 in 2007 – new lending criteria that Freddie officials say is helping to mitigate delinquencies.

In its monthly summary report for March, Freddie also stated that its loan modifications totaled 12,141 last month and 35,158 for the three months ended March 31, 2011.

The GSE also reported that single-family refinance-loan purchase and guarantee volume was $19.4 billion in March, reflecting 72 percent of the month’s total mortgage purchases and issuances.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Move Closer to 2009 Lows

Data released by Standard & Poor’s Tuesday show that home prices are continuing to slip across the country, with residential property values just slightly above their April 2009 bottom.

Both the 20-city and 10-city composite readings of the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index fell another 1.1 percent in February 2011 when compared to the previous month.

The 20-city composite is down 3.3 percent from its February 2010 level, while the 10-city posted a 2.6 percent drop from a year ago.

February marked the eighth straight month that the Case-Shiller readings have headed lower.

The latest declines were in line with market expectations. Economists were forecasting a drop in the 20-city index of just over 3 percent, largely due to the elevated level of distressed properties on the market, which according to the National Association of Realtors sell at a median discount of about 20 percent.

Washington D.C. was the only market to post a year-over-year gain with an annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. It’s the 15th straight month D.C. has been in positive territory, beginning in December 2009.

San Diego, which had posted 15 consecutive months of positive annual rates, ended its run with a 1.8 percent decline in February 2011 when compared to 12 months earlier.

Ten of the 11 cities that set new lows in January 2011 saw new lows again in February.

Detroit was the only one to avoid another new trough, managing a 1.0 percent increase in February over January and the only city with a positive monthly change. Still, home prices there are sitting at around 30 percent below their 2000 price levels, S&P reports.

Atlanta, Cleveland, and Las Vegas join Detroit as cities with home prices below their 2000 levels. Phoenix is just barely above its January 2000 level after a new index low.

By comparison, home prices in D.C. are more than 80 percent over the market’s January 2000 level. Other cities holding on to gains of more than 50 percent from 11 years ago include Los Angeles, New York, and San Diego.

Assessing the broader picture, S&P says with an index level of 139.27, the 20-city composite is virtually back to its April 2009 trough value (139.26), while the 10-city composite is 1.5 percent above its low.

“There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, adding that “The 20-city composite is within a hair’s breadth of a double dip.”

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Industry Data Points to Record-High Level of Short Sales

An industry study released Monday shows that nearly half of home sales activity last month involved distressed properties, a trend that is likely to continue as the backlog of foreclosures and mortgage defaults make their way through the pipeline.

Within this distressed property segment, the market analysis shows a boom in short sales during the month of March to record-high levels and a drop in the proportion of damaged REO.

These deductions come from the HousingPulse Tracking Survey generated by Campbell Surveys and Inside Mortgage Finance.

The survey’s overall distressed property index rose to 48.6 percent in March – the second highest level seen in the past 12 months.

Short sales rose from 17.0 percent in February to a record-high 19.6 percent in March. Over the same period, damaged REO fell from 14.9 percent to 12.0 percent.

The report referred to both developments as “a positive sign” for the market.

Short sales can eliminate the sometimes long periods of time a home sits vacant after it is repossessed by the lender after foreclosure, and because damaged REO has the worst effect on comparables used for appraisals, smaller amounts of damaged REO should be a positive for home values in future months.

In another potentially significant – but not so positive – development, the monthly survey registered a slowdown in owner-occupant activity during March.

Activity among both current homeowners and first-time homebuyers declined just over half a percentage point from February to March, while investor activity was up only slightly.

Survey respondents reported mixed opinions on traffic for the winter and spring housing market.

“January, February, and March sales were characterized by a wait and see attitude of buyers,” stated an agent in California, noting that concern over the happenings in the nation’s Capitol, as well as economic influences on consumer finances such as gas prices, are impacting buyer demand.

“Our market bottomed out last year and started to rise slowly,” reported an agent in Colorado. “January was flat with activity and inventory. February saw more buyers coming out. March has seen a sharp increase of new listings, approximately double what we had in February. It appears that we should have a marked increase in activity as we continue in this strong season of the year.”

A large number of respondents commented on the problems the high proportion of distressed properties is causing for the appraisal system, noting that when so many properties are distressed, it is often difficult for appraisers to find recently sold non-distressed properties to gauge value.

“Appraisers continue to use distressed property sales to establish value on non-distressed listings,” complained an agent in Arizona. “Further, these same appraisers will not make any adjustments for amenities, (pools, spas, solar, etc.), when compiling a normal sale vs. distressed comps.”

The agent went on to explain, “I have had at least one appraiser tell me that his firm has been given marching orders to calculate the current value based on all properties sold within the last 3 to 6 months and only use the average square footage minus 10 percent to establish neighborhood value comps. If this is indeed standard practice, it will take a mighty long time to realize any increases in property values.”

The Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey polls more than 3,000 real estate agents nationwide each month to provide insight on home sales and mortgage usage patterns.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

San Diego Building Permits Best in 4 Years

Document

Download: Building permits, March 2011

San Diego County building permit activity ended the first quarter of the year with its best performance in four years, according to the Construction Industry Research Board.

Local agencies issued permits for 1,427 dwelling units through March, up 71.2 percent from the same period last year.

For nonresidential activity, measured in permit valuation, the quarter total was $296.2 million, up 123.4 percent from 2010 levels.

Since 2007, first-quarter residential permits have dropped from 2,541 to as low as 694 in 2009 as credit tightened, foreclosures and defaults skyrocketed and the recession cooled interest in home buying.

For March, there were 217 single-family and 66 multifamily units authorized, compared with 136 and 539, respectively, in February and 214 and 74, respectively, in March 2010, for a year-over-year decline of 1.7 percent.

Statewide, March was 9.1 percent ahead of March 2010 but the quarter was down 9.7 percent.

Mike Winn, president and CEO of the California Building Industry Association, said the statewide totals for the quarter were lower than desired because many builders obtained building permits early to avoid building code changes that took effect Jan. 1.

"As the economy slowly improves and employers begin to add more workers to their payrolls, we expect to see construction pick up as consumers begin to regain their confidence in the housing market and create a greater demand for new homes," Winn said.

The research board downgraded its predictions for the year to 55,000 homes for the state, compared with 60,000 predicted last month. The construction employment forecast for the year also was adjusted downward slightly to 367,900 jobs, 100 less than predicted in February. The board does not project regional or county numbers.

In the nonresidential category locally, commercial permits worth $52.2 million were issued in March, up from only $850,000 in February and $1.1 million in March 2010. Industrial valuation was $2.3 million, up from $1.3 million in February and none a year earlier.

In public works, San Diego County saw $115.3 million in permit valuations for the first quarter, up 31.3 percent year-over-year, with the biggest boost in schools and community colleges. The statewide total of $1.6 billion was 16.6 percent ahead of the same period last year.

In heavy construction for roads, waterworks and other infrastructure, the first quarter valuation for San Diego was $161 million, up 19.4 percent from the same period last year. Statewide the total was $2.6 billion, up 60.8 percent year-over-year.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Realtors Report Fewer Distressed Sales in California

While the share of distressed sales – REOs and short sales – is on the rise when tallying numbers nationwide, it’s falling in California.

The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) reports that the total share of all distressed property types sold statewide declined in March to 51 percent, down from 56 percent in February.

“Consistent with the state as a whole, nearly all the counties for which we have data also experienced an improvement in distressed sales,” said C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce. “However, distressed sales in most of the

counties were higher than a year ago, as the market continues to work through large numbers of troubled mortgages.”

According to the local Realtor group, REOs accounted for 31 percent of the state’s home sales last month, while short sales made up 20 percent.

The median price of homes sold in the state varied dramatically depending on the property type, with non-distressed properties selling for much higher prices than short sales and foreclosures.

C.A.R. reports that the statewide median price of non-distressed properties sold in March was $386,500.

That’s 88 percent – or $181,500 – higher than the March REO median price of $205,000.

The short sale median price of $274,700 came in 41 percent – or $111,800 – below the median price for non-distressed properties.

C.A.R. notes that price differences across short sales, REOs, and non-distressed properties reflect variances in the condition of the property, with REOs typically being in worse condition than short sales and non-distressed properties. A seller’s circumstance, such as needing to sell under duress, is also a factor.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

S&P and Experian Continue to Record Declines in Mortgage Defaults

Data through March 2011, released by S&P Indices and Experian, showed a decline in mortgage default rates for the fourth consecutive month.

The agencies’ index of first mortgage defaults fell from 2.45 percent in February to 2.33 percent in March. As measured by the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, first mortgage defaults are down 41 percent from March 2010.

Second mortgage defaults also declined, down from 1.46 percent in February to 1.42 percent in March. The default rate in the second mortgage category of the S&P/Experian study has fallen 49 percent over the past year.

“Recent data from the Fed confirms a continuing decline in mortgage debt outstanding,” said said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee for S&P Indices.

“The declining debt levels, combined with the economic recovery, are supporting lower defaults and a gradual improvement in consumers’ financial condition,” he explained, adding that “This positive trend should help maintain the recovery.”

Not only has the ratio of on-time mortgage payments improved, but the agencies’ report indicates that consumers are making headway on their debt obligations overall. The data show a decline in monthly default rates across all credit lines – including bank cards and auto loans, in addition to mortgages.

“Modest declines in consumer credit default rates continue across all major sectors as consumers gradually rebound from the financial crisis of two years ago,” Blitzer said.

Jointly developed by Standard & Poor’s and Experian, the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices track the default experience of consumer balances across major loan categories.

The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.

Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies, and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Today's Real Estate Market a 'Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity'

Greg Rand, a 20-year real estate veteran and CEO of OwnAmerica, says now is the time to invest in real estate.

Rand compares the current market to the years following the Great Depression when market conditions sparked a boom that sustained 65 years of appreciation in real estate.

“This economic crisis, while similar to the Great Depression, is also unique in the way that the housing market played a central role,” Rand said. “It is true that this is a once-in-a-generation crisis. It is also true that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity. It’s time to focus on the other side of the coin.”

According to Rand, a little optimism can go a long way toward spurring real estate back to life.

“There is a very real economic force called irrational pessimism that is the cause of much economic hardship, not the effect,” he said.

“More people are unemployed because successful businesses are afraid to expand. More people are losing homes they can afford because they are underwater and believe their home will never appreciate again. People with job security are convinced they don’t have it and live in fear,” Rand explained.

He insists, “Irrational pessimism is one reason why today’s situation runs so parallel to the Great Depression.”

Rand contends there is no housing meltdown. Rather, there was a media and Wall Street meltdown centered on a predictable housing correction.

The real estate market changes hourly, he says, and investing in real estate is a matter of watching the trends.

“It comes down to the idea that no matter how the markets change, no matter which way the winds shift, people will always need a place to live,” Rand said. “That’s been true of America since the first log cabin.

“If you plug into that concept and leave fear in a box on the shelf, you can be ahead of the curve and ride the wave of the trends that matter,” according to Rand.

OwnAmerica is a Web-based resource for real estate investors and investment advisors headquartered in New York.

Rand is also on WABC Radio, a regular commentator on the Fox Business network, a columnist for Real Estate magazine, and author of the book “Crash-Boom” from Career Press

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

If You Don't Own A Home Buy One, If You Own A Home Buy Another One....

by Shane Pliskin

John Paulson: Multibillionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson, the investment genius who made a killing going short subprime mortgages a few years ago, told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club. As this is the best time in 50 years to buy homes, Paulson advised his listeners, crowded into 3 separate dining rooms, to issue 30 year mortgages to buy a home as “your debt and interest payments get locked in at record lows, while the price of your home will rise.” “If you don’t own a home buy one,” Paulson recommended; ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.” Fortune Mag Declares Home Ownership on the Rise March 28, 2011 by Stacey Moncrieff · 4 Comments Filed under: Economics, Mortgage Financing By Stacey Moncrieff, Editor in Chief, REALTOR® Magazine [cid:image006.png@01CC0016.A857AB20]I was just reviewing proofs of our April/May issue — in which forecasters have predicted a steady rise in home appreciation through 2015 — when our publisher e-mailed me a link to “Real estate: It’s time to buy again” by veteran Fortune magazine writer Shawn Tully. Tully makes a convincing case that the moribund new-construction market, combined with rising rents and an improving job market, will result in increased demand for homes and begin to drive prices up. Even in many high-foreclosure areas, he says, the outlook is getting better. All good news comes with caveats. Tully says consumer confidence and job growth still need to gain ground — and he allows that some markets won’t rebound quickly. But he provides a solidly positive report for real estate pros dealing with nervous and discouraged sellers and buyers. He writes: “During the last decade’s historic run-up in prices, Fortune repeatedly warned that things were moving too fast. In a cover story titled “Is the Housing Boom Over?” [published in 2004], this writer’s analysis found that the basic forces that govern the market — the cost of owning vs. renting and the level of new construction — were in bubble territory. Eventually reality set in, and prices plummeted. Our current view focuses on those same fundamentals — only now they’re pointing in the opposite direction. “So let’s state it simply and forcibly: Housing is back.” Real estate: It's time to buy again Posted by Shawn Tully, senior editor-at-large March 28, 2011 5:00 am Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing. [cid:image001.jpg@01CBFFAB.B448EE00] A home under construction in Austin. The number of new homes in the pipeline nationwide is quite low. From his wide-rimmed cowboy hat to his roper boots, Mike Castleman fits moviedom's image of the lanky Texas rancher. On a recent March evening, Castleman is feeding cattle biscuits to his two pet longhorn steers, Big Buddy and Little Buddy, on his 460-acre Bar Ten Creek Ranch in Dripping Springs, a hamlet outside Austin in the Texas Hill Country. The spread is a medley of meandering streams, craggy cliffs, and centuries-old oaks. But even in this pastoral setting, his mind keeps returning to a subject he knows as well as any expert around: the housing market. "I'm a dirt-road economist who sees what's happening on the ground, and in 35 years I've never seen a shortage of new construction like the one I'm seeing today," declares Castleman, 70, now offering a biscuit to his miniature donkey Thumper. "The talking heads who are down on real estate will hate to hear this, but America needs to build a lot more houses. And in most markets the price of new homes is fixin' to rise, not fall." Castleman is in a unique position to know. As the founder and CEO of a company called Metrostudy, he's spent more than three decades tracking real-time data on the country's inventory of new homes. Each quarter he dispatches 500 inspectors to literally drive through 45,000 subdivisions from Baltimore to Sacramento. The inspectors examine 5 million finished lots, one at a time, and record whether they contain a house that's under construction, one that's finished and for sale, or a home that's sold. Metrostudy covers 19 states, or around 65% of the U.S. housing market, including all the ones hardest hit by the crash: Florida, California, Arizona, and Nevada. The company's client list includes virtually every major homebuilder and bank -- from Pulte (PHM) and KB Home (KBH) to Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC). The key figures that Metrostudy collects, and that those clients prize, are the number of homes that are vacant and for sale in each city, and the number of months it takes to sell all of them. Together those figures measure inventory -- the key metric in determining whether a market has a surplus or a shortage of new housing. [cid:image002.jpg@01CBFFAB.B448EE00] Today Castleman is witnessing an extraordinary reversal of the new-home glut that helped sink prices just a few years ago. In the 41 cities Metrostudy covers, a total of 78,000 houses are now either vacant and for sale, or under construction. That's less than one-fourth of the 343,000 units in those two categories at the peak of the frenzy in mid-2006, and well below the level of a decade ago. "If we had anything like normal levels of buying, those houses would sell in 2½ months," says Castleman. "We'd see an incredible shortage. And that's where we're heading." If all the noise you're hearing about housing has you totally confused, join the crowd. One day you'll read that owning a home has never been more affordable. The next day you'll see news that housing starts have plunged to nearly their lowest level in half a century, as headlines announced in March. After four years of falling prices and surging foreclosures, it's hard to know what to think. Even Robert Shiller and Karl Case can't agree. The two economists, who together created the widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indices, are right now offering sharply contrasting views of housing's future. Shiller recently warned that the chances were high for a further double-digit drop in U.S. home prices. But in an interview with Fortune, Case took a far brighter view: "The lack of new home building is a huge help that a lot of people are ignoring," says Case. "People think I'm crazy to be optimistic, but housing is looking like the little engine that could." To see where real estate is truly headed, it's critical to keep your eye firmly on the fundamentals that, over time, always determine the course of prices and construction. During the last decade's historic run-up in prices, Fortune repeatedly warned that things were moving too fast. In a cover story titled "Is the Housing Boom Over?," this writer's analysis found that the basic forces that govern the market -- the cost of owning vs. renting and the level of new construction -- were in bubble territory. Eventually reality set in, and prices plummeted. Our current view focuses on those same fundamentals -- only now they're pointing in the opposite direction. So let's state it simply and forcibly: Housing is back. Two basic factors are laying the foundation for dramatic recovery in residential real estate. The first is the historic drop in new construction that so amazes Castleman. The second is a steep decline in prices, on the order of 30% nationwide since 2006, and as much as 55% in the hardest-hit markets. The story of this downturn has been an astonishing flight from the traditional American approach of buying new houses to an embrace of renting. But the new affordability will gradually lure Americans back to buying homes. And the return of the homeowner will start raising prices in many markets this year. [cid:image003.jpg@01CBFFAB.B448EE00] Drumming up sales Of course, home prices are low and home construction is weak for a reason: incredibly low demand. For our scenario to play out, America will need a decent economy, with job creation and consumer confidence continuing to claw their way back to normal. One big fear is that today's tight credit standards will chill the market. But we're really returning to the standards that prevailed before the craze, and those requirements didn't stop prices and homebuilding from rising in a good economy. "The credit standards are now at about historical levels, excluding the bubble period," says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. "We saw prices rising with fundamentals in those periods, and it will happen again." To see why, let's examine the remarkable shift in home affordability. A new study by Deutsche Bank measures affordability in two ways: first, the share of income Americans are paying to own a home. And second, the cost of owning vs. renting. On the first metric, the analysis finds that homeowners now pay just 9.8% of their income in after-tax mortgage, tax, and insurance payments. That's down from 17.2% at the bubble's peak in 2007, and by far the lowest number in the Deutsche Bank database, going back to 1999. The second measure, the cost of owning compared with renting, should also inspire potential buyers. In 28 out of 54 major markets, it's now cheaper to pay a mortgage and other major costs than to rent the same house. What's most compelling is that in all of the distressed markets, owning now wins by a wide margin -- a stunning reversal from four years ago. It now costs 34% less than renting in Atlanta. In Miami the average rent is now $1,031 a month, vs. the $856 it costs to carry a ranch house or stucco cottage as an owner. (For more, see The top 10 cities for home buyers) Not all markets will bounce back equally, of course. Housing resembles the weather: The exact conditions are different in every city. But in general the big U.S. markets fall into two different climate zones right now. We'll call them the "nondistressed markets" and the "foreclosure markets." A more detailed look shows why the forecast for both is favorable. Nondistressed markets: Ready for launch No cities went untouched by the collapse in prices over the past few years. But markets such as Northern Virginia, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, San Diego, the San Francisco suburbs, and virtually all of Texas held up reasonably well. In those areas prices spiked far less than in bubble cities -- the foreclosure markets we'll get to shortly -- chiefly because they didn't get nearly as many speculators who thought they could flip the homes or rent them to snowbirds. The nondistressed markets will be able to get prices rising and construction growing far faster than the harder-hit areas for a simple reason: Although some of these markets are still suffering from foreclosures, they don't need to work through the big overhang haunting a Las Vegas or a Phoenix. The number of new homes for sale or in the pipeline is extraordinarily low in nondistressed markets. San Diego is typical. It has just 921 freestanding homes for sale or under construction, compared with 4,425 in late 2005. The challenge for these cities is to generate enough demand to reduce inventories of existing, or resale, homes. In the entire country the resale supply stands at 3.5 million houses and condos. That's a fairly high number, since it would take more than eight months to sell those properties; seven months or below is the threshold for a strong market. But in the nondistressed cities, the existing home inventory is lower, closer to seven months on average. So a modest increase in demand will translate into strong gains in both prices and new construction. That should happen quickly, because most of those markets -- including Silicon Valley, Northern Virginia, and Texas -- are now showing good job growth. Zandi of Moody's Analytics expects that prices will rise three to four points faster than inflation for the next few years in virtually all of the nondistressed markets. His view is that prices will increase in line with rents, which are now growing briskly because apartments are in short supply. Those higher rents will encourage buyers to cross the street from an apartment to a home of their own. In Northern Virginia, Chris Bratz, an engineer, and his wife, Amy DiElsi, a publicist, are planning to leave their rental apartment and become homeowners for the first time. The main reason? Buying has simply become a far better deal than renting. "The market got completely inflated, then it crashed, so prices are coming back to where they should be," says Chris. As the couple have watched prices fall, they have also watched the rent on their apartment spiral upward, reaching $2,700 a month. They calculate that they should be able to purchase a townhouse for between $400,000 and $500,000 and pay less per month for a mortgage. The nondistressed markets will also lead the way in construction. Zandi predicts that for the nation as a whole, single-family housing "starts" -- measured when a builder pours a foundation for a new home -- will rise from 470,000 in 2010 to as much as 700,000 this year. A large portion of that activity will happen in nondistressed markets where a tightening supply of resale houses will start making new homes look like a good deal. "Our main competition is from resales," says Jeff Mezger, CEO of KB Home. "The prices of those homes have stayed so low, because of low demand, that it's hampered the ability of builders to sell new houses." But many would-be buyers simply prefer a brand-new house. Eventually they'll move from renters to buyers, and the trend will accelerate now that prices are no longer dropping. In Minneapolis, Yuan Qu and her husband, Xiang Chen, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, just moved from a two-bedroom rental to a new light-blue four-bedroom ranch with a chocolate-colored roof on a spacious corner lot. They paid $400,000, a bargain price compared with a few years ago. The couple, both in their early thirties, moved to Minnesota from China six years ago. "We wanted to buy a house, and we've been waiting and waiting and waiting," says Qu. "The prices went down for so long, we finally thought they couldn't keep falling." For Qu the only choice was new construction. "We're not very handy people," she admits. Foreclosure markets: The outlook is brightening [cid:image004.jpg@01CBFFAB.B448EE00] A home off the market in Mesa, Ariz. The true disaster areas for housing since the bubble burst have been Sunbelt cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Miami -- places that boasted great job and population growth in the mid-2000s, only to suffer a housing crash that swamped them with empty homes and condos and crushed their economies. But people always want to live in those sunny locales, and their job markets are starting to recover, albeit slowly. In foreclosure markets the inventory problem is far greater because it includes not just traditional resale homes but millions of distressed properties. Fortunately those houses are now such a screaming deal that investors, including lots of mom-and-pop buyers, are purchasing them at a rapid pace. To be sure, some foreclosure markets won't rebound for years because they're both vastly overbuilt and far from big job centers; a prime example is California's Inland Empire, a real estate disaster zone 80 miles east of Los Angeles. But the outlook is brightening for Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, and parts of Northern California. A big positive is the tiny supply of new homes entering the market. Phoenix, for example, has a total of just 8,100 new homes that are either for sale or under construction, down from 53,000 in mid-2006. The big test in these cities is absorbing the steady stream of distressed properties. The foreclosures put downward pressure on the market far out of proportion to their numbers because of markdown pricing. "We had levels of inventory even higher than this in 1990 and 1991," says MIT economist William Wheaton. "But they were traditional listings, not foreclosures, so they didn't create the big discounts you get with foreclosures." Wheaton reckons that we'll see a flow of around 1 million foreclosures a year, at a fairly even pace, from now through 2013. That figure is frequently cited as evidence that the market is doomed for years in most foreclosure markets. Not so. The reason is that the vast bulk of those units, probably over 600,000, according to Gleb Nechayev, an economist with real estate firm CB Richard Ellis (CBG), are being converted to rentals either by investors or their current owners. Those properties are finding plenty of renters, since the rental market is still extremely strong across the country. Remember, the millions who lost their homes to foreclosure still need somewhere to live. A typical investor is Alex Barbalat, a Russian immigrant who's purchased seven homes east of San Francisco in the towns of Bay Point, Antioch, and Pittsburg. His average purchase price is around $100,000 for homes that once sold for between $300,000 and $500,000. But he has no trouble finding renters, since his tenants can commute to jobs in San Francisco on the BART transit system. Barbalat is pocketing rental yields on the prices he paid of around 12%, and he's in no hurry to sell. "I'm holding them until prices drastically rise," he says. Investment funds are also entering the game. Dotan Y. Melech looks for bargains in Las Vegas for UnitedAMS, a firm he co-founded that manages apartments and other real estate investments. The firm has raised more than $20 million from outside investors to purchase distressed properties. So far, Melech has bought around 300 houses and plans to purchase another 200 this year. He has no trouble renting the houses he buys, since, he estimates, occupancy rates in Las Vegas are touching 95%. The "cap rate," or return on investment after all expenses, is between 8% and 10% -- twice the rate on 10-year Treasuries. Melech rents to people who lost their homes but are reliable renters. "A lot of people can't be buyers because their credit got hurt," he says. Even with investors jumping in, buying activity in foreclosure markets hasn't yet increased enough to bring inventories down. It will soon. Zandi thinks prices will fall a couple of percentage points lower in the distressed markets in the short run. "But that will be overshooting," he says. "It's like an elastic band. If prices do drop this year, they will need to bounce back because they'll be far too low compared with rents and replacement cost." Renters will come off the sidelines to purchase homes in the years ahead, precisely the opposite trend of the past few years. Consider the example of Michael Dynda, a retired Air Force avionics technician who now works for a government contractor in Las Vegas. Dynda, 49, is a first-time buyer who put off purchasing for years, in part because prices were falling so rapidly in Las Vegas, with no bottom in sight. But last year the combination of bargain prices and low mortgage rates became too good to resist. He ended up purchasing a 2,300-square-foot stucco home for $240,000, or about half what it would have fetched in 2007. Dynda got a 4.38% home loan, and pays the same amount on his mortgage as on the rent on the house he left to become a homeowner. "The timing was about as good as it could get," says Dynda. [cid:image005.jpg@01CBFFAB.B448EE00] Mike Castleman's company tracks the inventory of new homes in 19 states across the country. He sees supply getting tight. "Home prices are fixin' to rise," he says. Back on the ranch, Mike Castleman is lounging in his creek-front mansion, built from "a hundred tons of fine central Texas limestone." As he shows off his collection of custom-made guitars, including one crafted to resemble the skin of a rattlesnake, the homespun housing guru once again returns to his favorite topic. Castleman claims that this recovery will look like all the others: It will bring a severe shortage of housing. He invokes the livestock business to explain. "It takes three years between the time a bull mates with a cow and when you get a calf ready for market," he says. "That's how it is in housing too. We'll get a big surge in demand and the drywall companies will take a long time to ramp up, and it will take years to get new lots approved. Buyers will show up looking for a house in a subdivision, and all the houses will be sold. The builders will tell them it will take six months to deliver a house." But those folks, says Castleman, will be set on buying a place. "And they'll want it so bad they'll bid the prices up!" In other words: Beat the crowd. It's a Great Time to Buy a House Mike Castleman, the Texan with the best realtime view of housing in the U.S., tells editor-atlarge Shawn Tully that the naysayers are about to get a big surprise: rising prices for new homes.

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Spring has sprung in the San Diego job market - March, 2011

San Diego's job market saw huge gains between February and March.

The county grew by 10,700 jobs over the month, and added 24,900 since March 2010, according to yesterday's report from the California Employment Development Department. These are the biggest job gains since the beginning of the recession.

Perhaps more importantly, job gains were distributed widely across industry sectors. Leisure and hospitality gained the most jobs, adding 3,100. Professional and Business Services (including R&D, legal services, architecture and engineering, marketing, and other professional industries) added 2,200. Manufacturing declined slightly, losing 400 jobs. Every other sector showed job growth, including agriculture, which grew by 400 jobs.

The unemployment rate was basically unchanged since February, at 10.2 percent in March. This reflects many residents re-entering the labor force now that the employment situation is brightening. San Diego's unemployment rate remains slightly higher than the national level (9.2 percent) and well below the statewide average (12.3 percent).

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

Foreclosure Activity at Lowest Level in Three Years


New data released by the tracking firm shows that foreclosure filings were reported on 681,153 properties during the first three months of this year. That represents a 15 percent decline from the previous quarter and a 27 percent drop from a year ago.

Commenting on the latest numbers, James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s CEO, said despite the recent plunge in foreclosure activity, the nation’s housing market continued to languish in the first quarter.

“Weak demand, declining home prices and the lack of credit availability are weighing heavily on the market, which is still facing the dual threat of a looming shadow inventory of distressed properties and the probability that foreclosure activity will begin to increase again as lenders and servicers gradually work their way through the backlog of thousands of foreclosures that have been delayed due to improperly processed paperwork,” Saccacio said.

A total of 197,112 U.S. properties received default notices for the first time in the January to March period, a 17 percent decrease from the previous quarter and a 35 percent decrease from the first quarter of 2010.

Foreclosure auctions were scheduled for the first time on 268,995 homes. That’s down 19 percent from the previous quarter and 27 percent from the first quarter of last year.

Lenders completed foreclosure actions on 215,046 homes last quarter, a 6 percent drop from the fourth quarter of 2010 and a 17 percent decrease from the first quarter of last year. However, in states where the non-judicial foreclosure process is primarily used, RealtyTrac says bank repossessions (REOs) increased 9 percent from the previous quarter.

Illustrating the extent to which processing delays pressed foreclosure activity to artificially low levels, RealtyTrac says states where a judicial foreclosure process is used accounted for some of the biggest quarterly and annual decreases in the first quarter.

Florida foreclosure activity decreased 47 percent from the previous quarter and was down 62 percent from the first quarter of 2010, although the state still posted the nation’s eighth highest foreclosure rate with one in every 152 housing units receiving a filing in Q1.

First quarter foreclosure activity in Massachusetts fell 46 percent from the previous quarter and was down 62 percent from a year ago. The state’s foreclosure rate – one in every 549 housing units with a foreclosure filing – ranked No. 38 among the states.

New Jersey’s first quarter foreclosure rate of one in every 401 housing units with a filing ranked No. 34 among the states, thanks in part to a 43 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous quarter and a 44 percent decline from the first quarter of 2010.

Connecticut’s first quarter foreclosure activity dropped 39 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 and was down 65 percent from a year earlier. Pennsylvania posted a 35 percent decline from the previous quarter and a 29 percent drop from the same period last year.

Looking at the nationwide data for March, RealtyTrac’s report indicates that activity is already beginning to pick up some. Foreclosure filings were reported on 239,795 U.S. properties last month, up 7 percent from February. Both default notices and REOs increased in March compared to the previous month; scheduled auctions was the only stat to post a monthly decline.

 

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators - March 2011

Leading Economic Indicators Up Sharply in March

Note: The tentative release date for next month's report is May 26.

April 28, 2011 -- The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 1.0 percent in March.  The gain was led by big increases in building permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and help wanted advertising.  Local consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy were also up solidly.  The only negative was a small drop in local stock prices.  With March’s gain, the USD Index has now risen or been unchanged for two full years.  

Index of Leading Economic Indicators 
The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (March
Source: USD
 Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate
+ 1.0 % 
Building Permits 
Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (March)
Source: Construction Industry Research Board
 
+ 1.70% 
Unemployment Insurance 
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in San Diego County, inverted (March

Source: Employment Development Department 
+ 1.89% 
  Stock Prices 
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (March) 
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript 
- 0.36%
Consumer Confidence 
An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County, estimated  (March)
Source: The Conference Board
+ 0.92% 

Help Wanted Advertising 
An index of online help wanted advertising in San Diego (March) 
Source: Monster Worldwide
+ 1.27% 
National Economy 
Index of Leading Economic Indicators (March)
Source: The Conference Board 
+ 0.86% 

The outlook for the local economy continues to be positive.  One area where things are picking up is the labor market, with 24,700 jobs added in San Diego Country between March 2010 and March 2011.  Sectors showing good job growth include administrative, support, and waste services (up 6,500 year-over-year), professional, scientific, and technical services (up 5,900), leisure and hospitality (up 4,800), and health care (up 3,800).  Construction (down 1,000 jobs year-over-year) and manufacturing (down 700) are the sectors that continue to lag.  While the gain is welcome, the local economy still has a long way to go to fully recover.  At the March rate of job growth, it will take another four years to get back to the same level of employment as the peak in December 2007.  The local unemployment rate remains high, having topped the double digit mark now for 22 consecutive months.   

Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits finished the first quarter of 2011 up almost 72 percent compared to the same period in 2010.  The gain was due exclusively to a surge in multi-family units authorized, which nearly quadrupled (up 293 percent) compared to the first quarter of 2010.  Single-family permits actually fell by 12 percent during the period. . . Both sides of the labor market were strong.  Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell for the third month in a row, which is a positive for the USD Index and a sign that layoffs are easing in the local economy.  On the hiring side of the market, help wanted advertising has also increased for three straight months.  Despite both labor market components being positive, the local unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in March, up from 10.1 percent in February. . . Local consumer confidence increased for the 11th month in a row in March.  So far, consumer confidence has not been affected by the big run-up in gasoline prices, which has had a negative impact on confidence in the past. . . Local stock prices fell for the first time in eight months.  This matched the behavior of most of the other market indexes, as all but the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down slightly in March. . . The outlook for the national economy continues to be positive as the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators was up for the ninth consecutive month.  But the advance estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 showed the national economy growing at only a 1.8 percent annualized rate as bad weather and disruptions from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan negatively affected the economy.  This is down from the GDP growth rate of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.

March’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 115.3, up from February’s revised reading of 114.1.  Revised data for building permits and the national Index of Leading Economic Indicators caused the previously reported record increase of 1.9 percent to be revised upward to an increase of 2.0 percent.  Please visit the Website address given below to see the revised changes for the individual components.  The values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:

   

Index

% Change
2010 MAR 109.0 +1.0%
  APR 109.2 +0.1%
  MAY 109.5 +0.3%
  JUN 109.7 +0.2%
  JUL 110.0 +0.3%
  AUG 110.0 +0.0%
  SEP 110.0 +0.0%
  OCT 110.0 +0.0%
  NOV 110.2 +0.3%
  DEC 110.8 +0.5%
2011 JAN 111.8 +1.0%
  FEB 114.1 +2.0%
  MAR 115.3 +1.0%

Home - All Months



For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:

Professor Alan Gin 
School of Business Administration 
University of San Diego 
5998 Alcalá Park 
San Diego, CA 92110 
TEL: (858) 603-3873 

FAX: (858) 484-5304 

E-mail: agin@san.rr.com

Posted via email from RealtorPeg

San Diego Uptown Area Median Condo Prices thru Mar 2011

MED CONDO PRICES 201103 UpTown.pdf Download this file

Greetings All,

 

The latest in San Diego SOLD home prices through Mar 2011.

 

For CONDOS, in the 13 different zip codes which I track, the median sold prices look like:

 

Ø  Compared to 1 mo ago, 77% of zips either went up in market value or stayed essentially the same (within +/-5% market value). Most notable of these was South Park / Golden Hill with a 38% increase over values of the prior month with 7 condos sold in this subject month along with Mission Valley at a 30% increase and 13 condos sold..

 

Ø  Compared to 2 mos ago, the market value of 54% are still either at a higher value or stayed essentially the same (within +/-5%) as they were 2 mos ago. Here we have our leader being South Park / Golden Hill with a 96% increase over market values of 2 mos ago and Pacific Beach at a 94% increase on 22 condos sold . Also, over both of the past 2 mos straight, 46% of zips have shown an increase or stayed essentially the same in market value.

 

Ø  Compared to 1 year ago, we have 31% with a market value either higher or essentially the same (within +/-5%).  In this 1 yr category, with a 78% increase over market values of 1 yr ago, is South Park / Golden Hill.

.

Summary:   The below chart gives you an excellent overview of San Diego by comparing the percentages of my tracked zip codes that either increased or held steady in home value:

 

MAR 2011

CONDOS

HOUSES

1 MO AGO

77%

78%

2 MO AGO

54%

72%

1 YR AGO

31%

61%

 

 

For more info on falling & rising home prices in San Diego, scroll down this blog a bit further  and check out my post, "Report Says Loan Mods Often More Beneficial Than Forclosures For Investors", an analysis of a report released recently by the Center for Responsible Lending.


 

Cheers Until Next Month!  - Peg
 

Mary "Peg" Heying
REALTOR® - CA DRE License # 01726709
Prudential CA Realty
890 W Washington St.
San Diego, CA 92103
Cell:  (619) 301-8589

Posted via email from RealtorPeg